Thursday, September 3, 2009

ERIKA REMAINS DISORGANIZED



TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 AM AST THU SEP 03 2009

...ERIKA REMAINS DISORGANIZED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DOMINICA...
GUADELOUPE...ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...
SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF POORLY-ORGANIZED TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7
WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...140 KM...WEST OF GUADELOUPE AND ABOUT 260
MILES...420 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND APPROACH THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. OVER PUERTO RICO...3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.5N 62.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA



TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009

...DISORGANIZED ERIKA LIKELY TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND
ST. EUSTATIUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ERIKA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.0
WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES...455 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ERIKA HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.0N 59.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Friday, August 28, 2009

TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 8



TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009

...DANNY BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND AND
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS
AREA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST OR ABOUT
400 MILES...640 KM...SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THERE IS SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT
RESTRENGTHENING TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 1008
MB...29.77 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS FROM DANNY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...29.5N 74.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

Thursday, August 27, 2009

TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 4



TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
500 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

...DANNY REFORMS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH...

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF DANNY HAS
REFORMED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH. AT 500 AM EDT...0900
UTC...THE CENTER OF DANNY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4
NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.1 WEST OR ABOUT 370 MILES...590 KM...
EAST-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 575 MILES...925 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS
1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...27.4N 72.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

T.S. Danny



TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

...THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EAST OF THE BAHAMAS BECOMES
TROPICAL STORM DANNY...

INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST OR ABOUT
445 MILES...715 KM...EAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 775 MILES...1250 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.
A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

DANNY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES...OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...24.9N 70.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

Saturday, August 22, 2009

HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 28




NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2009

...BILL MOVING QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE MASSACHUSETTS COAST...

AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH...
INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE ISSUED ON SATURDAY FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES...
355 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 430 MILES...690 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS POSITION IS
ALSO ABOUT 575 MILES...925 KM...SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES THIS MORNING. BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT AND APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA
ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE CENTER OF BILL MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF
STREAM.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. NOAA BUOY 41048 JUST REPORTED 1-MINUTE MEAN WINDS
OF 58 MPH...93 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 69 MPH...112 KM/HR.
BERMUDA HAS BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 40 MPH...
64 KM/HR...FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS INDICATED THAT THE STORM TIDE WILL
RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG
THE COAST...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE BILL ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS
AND BERMUDA...AND BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. LARGE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...33.0N 68.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 22 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Friday, August 21, 2009

HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 24




NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
500 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2009

...BILL STILL A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE BUT LOOKING LESS
ORGANIZED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.4 WEST OR ABOUT 425 MILES...
680 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 865 MILES...1390 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY.

BILL IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. NOAA
BUOY 41049...LOCATED ABOUT 170 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...
RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 46 MPH...74 KM/HR...AND A
WIND GUST OF 58 MPH...94 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.

BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH POSSIBLY SOME AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.

SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
BERMUDA COASTLINE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVES GENERATED BY BILL.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...AND BERMUDA...AND SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF
CANADA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE
CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...26.2N 65.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.